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  • OMXS30 Daily Trading points and guide

    Wednesday August 24, 2011

    OMXS30

    omxs30_realtime_15days_110825Quite a weak close for the OMX. In fact, it almost fired a Bearish rejection pattern, but managed to close a few points above that level. At the same time it reached the minimum FIB retrace level (in the 82 point run from 851) so the journey can continue up from here. Looking at resistances, we have a strong one at 934, which is both previous day high and pivot R1. If broken, Weekly R1 @ 947,5 is the next target. Starting hypothesis is that 934 will hold at least until the US markets open.

    Tuesday August 23, 2011

    OMXS30

    omxs30_6weeks_23aug The OMXS30 closed very strongly and finished above weeky pivot. There seems to be a free path to R1 at 914,6 (1,0% up). If that’s broken there’s another 1% to R2. For the week, 947,5 is the first resistance.





    Sunday March 20, 2011

    OMXS30

    OMXS30 daily chart

    OMXS30 daily chart

    The OMXS30 quickly bounced back after three days of steep decline following the Tsunami incident in Japan. It now faces serious FIB resistance in the area 1098-1102. We’re likely to see declines from this level before heading north again. First targets are 1078 and 1068. The market is right now of course very sensitive to news from the nuclear powerplant failures in Japan, so any substantial status change there can quickly throw the market in either direction.


    Sunday May 30, 2010

    OMXS30

    omxs30_30may_3months_daily1omxs30_30may_6months_weekly

    During the past week, the OMXS30 came close to the 920 support level, reversed and ended the week at 979. Following the advice from last week, entering the market at 927-920, turned out to be very proifitable. Our scenario for this week is that the consolidation will continue. An inside bar looks plausible, so we’re assuming trading between 923 and 988. Note that the daily chart fired a bearish rejection, putting an end to the short daily bullish trend.

    Sunday May 23, 2010

    OMXS30

    omxs30_daily_5months_may21

    omxs30_23may_6months_weekly

    The OMXS30 has now for the second time in three weeks broken down below its previous conslidation level of 980. Both daily and weekly trends are still falling, so a test of 920 during next week is quite plausible. Unless something extraordinary happens in terms of macroeconomics, 920 will probably hold for such test, so entering the market at 927-920 is probably a good idea.

    If the trend reverses, an attempt to pass 984 during the week looks likely. Since the OMXS30 probably needs some time of consolidation before seeking new highs, it’s likely that this weeks trading will be below 1000. Hence the wide trading rande for this week is 920-1000.

    Wednesday May 5, 2010

    22:00

    OMXS30

    omxs30 daily chart

    A bearish rejection signal on April 24th put an effective end to the rising trend. Based on market worries about the European sovereign debt crisis,  the OMXS30 lost a striking 3,0% in a continously falling market. It is too early to judge if this is a part of a consolidation or the beginning of a major reverse.  The next target is 1016 which corresponds to a 38,2 FIB retrace. That’s 1% down from todays close and there is a distict possibility that the OMXS will reach this already in the next couple of days.

    Sunday March 7, 2010

    OMXS30

    The OMXS30 demonstrated a lot of strength this week, posting gains in all five trading days and breaking out from a consolidation area. Both weekly and daily trends are now bullish and until we see a clear reversal in the daily trend, let the trend be your friend.

    Daily bars last 6 months

    Daily bars last 6 months

    weekly bars, last 6 months

    weekly bars, last 6 months

    Sunday February 14, 2010

    OMXS30

    omxs30_14feb_6months_week_trendsAfter two more sluggish weeks the bearish trend continues for OMXS30. Friday Feb 12th marked the lowest weekly close since Oct 16th.

    We also note that this trend has continued through the reporting season, which has produced a mixed result. Stock picking has truly been essential for success during the last three weeks; big companies with better-than-expected results have in some cases (e.g. Nokia) rallied more than 10% in one day while the opposite has been true for disappointing companies (e.g. Electrolux).

    Right now it looks like the OMX is following the trend towards the support area 904-916. Be aware of opportunistic rallies as we’re getting closer to 916.

    Sunday January 24, 2010

    OMXS30

    omxs30_24jan_6m_week_trends

    The OMXS30 was down 2,0% last week closing at 951,1. The fact that the index closed below 955-960 and that it also fired a pivot point reversal in the weekly chart, signals that the short term trend (even in the weekly chart) now has shifted to bearish. Looking south, we have daily support at 933 and the next weekly support levels in the area 916-904. During next week many important OMXS30 companies are queued up for the Q4 and annual reports (e.g. Ericsson on the 25th, H&M and SKF on the 28th), so there are reasons to assume increased volatility during the week. Stretch Target is awaiting market reactions on these reports before deciding whether to take position for a downturn. Right now, we’re hedging the stock portfolio with XACT Bear.

    Sunday January 17, 2010

    OMXS30

    3 months daily chart

    Last week, the OMXS30 broke above 977 and thus out from the consolidation pattern between 935 and 970 where prices have been trading since mid-November. This confirms the bullish trend since the beginning of 2010 (2009 ended with some bearish patterns), and trends are bullish both on the daily and weekly charts. Last week ended with a 1,1% decline and closed at 970,65. Short term daily support is at 965 (Fib) and 960.

    1 year weekly graph

    960 is also an important support level in the weekly chart, where the OMXS30 almost fired a bearish rejection signal last week (open price was not on the bottom third of the bar). The trend shifts to bearish below 960. Notice also how trend support lines are increasingly gentle (negative second derivative). This isn’t significant right now, but we will keep our eye on this development.

    Saturday December 26, 2009

    As many of you frequent readers have noticed I haven’t been updating this page in a while. I regret that business commitments have forced me to interrupt this type of free material. Starting in 2010, I will occasionally (weekly rather than daily) post analyses on this page.  I wish you great investment opportunities in 2010.

    Happy New Year! Gott Nytt År! Guten Rutsch!

    Friday September 25, 2009

    OMXS30

    omxs30_3months_sept25It may be an early call, but I take the bearish rejection signal on Sept 23 together with the fall on Sept 24 as a confirmation of a trend change to bearish.
    Comments in chart.

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    Thursday September 24, 2009, intraday comment 13:32

    JM

    jm_24sept_15min_15days_2

    After yesterday’s bounce at the yearly high, JM fired a bearish rejection pattern and continues today with a strong intraday reversal -3,84% as I am writing this.
    Furthermore, it fired a key technical sell signal as it fell below both intra day support levels and back into the rising trend channel. The trend channel is again a resistance, and so is the 23,6 FIB at 89,0. Close below 89,0 signals for declines to 86,4.

    jm_day_6months_trend_channel

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    Tuesday September 22, 2009

    JM

    JM 21sept 15min 15days On Monday, JM managed only one 15 min close below the critical level 89,0 (see below) and that wasn’t enough to cause further declines. The share instead gained momentum and closed very strongly at 91,25 despite an otherwise gloomy Swedish market. The buy side was dominated by one actor, NEO, who totalled a net of roughly 15 Mio SEK. That is twice as much as the largest net buyer or seller normally yields in one trading day with JM. Sells were more evenly spread.

    Upside Tuesday: JM could test R1 at 92,5  and if that breaks, the road is open to a new yearly high.

    Downside: Strong support at 89,0 (S1, FIB) where also the rising trade channel (which JM has broken out from) supports.

    If 89,0 holds and JM closes above pivot, this calls for new highs during wednesday.

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    Monday September 21, 2009

    JM

    15min chart a5 days

    15min chart a5 days

    On Thursday Sept 17, JM broke out from the steepest of three rising trends and has since then declined slightly before finishing off with a weak close at 89,5 (see STI here) on Friday. In Monday’s session the 23,6% FIB retrace at 89,0 will be crucial. JM has often reversed at this level over the past months and the price quickly bounced back when it briefely went as low as 88,75 on Friday. This time around, we also have support at 88,7 and 88,3 and I dare to say that if JM closes below 89 on Monday, which isn’t unlikely at all, it’s a strong sign for further (quick) declines to 86,25. Upside: Unless we’ll have very strong support from Asian markets on Monday, JM is unlikely to trade above 91,5.
    jm_daily_19sept

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    Wednesday September 16, 2009

    JM

    16sept_jm15mi_10daysJM is trading in a very strong rising trend. After HQ Bank in an analysis recommended hedging JM and NCC against Skanska, the two former shares have risen sharply. In the Sept 15 low volume trading session, JM made and failed an attempt to pass this year´s high of 92 and then fell back to 90,75 before closing at 91,25. In late trading, the price was supported more or less by one actor only, namely ENS. They placed an effective stop of 35000 shares at 91, which no-one dared to challenge. The actor who pushed up prices during Monday and much of last week, HQB, was only the 7th largest net buyer on Tuesday.

    If Asian markets are neutral or in red over night, we’re likely to immediately test the daily pivot at 90,8. If the guidance from Asia is positive, we’ll instead make another test of 92. The Wednesday trading range is likely to be between 92,5 and 88 (where we have a very strong daily resistance). If 92,5 breaks, the next target is 93,5.

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    Monday September 14, 2009

    OMXS30

    omxs30_13sept_15min_10days
    Keep your eyes on 912,7 and 909 in today’s session. If passing 909, the short-term trend turns bearish and the next resistance is at 904.
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    Tuesday September 8, 2009

    JM

    JM with pivots for Sept 8, trend channel and trend lines

    JM with pivots for Sept 8, trend channel and trend lines

    JM closed at 82,50 on Monday and has thereby made a 2nd test of the 23% FIB retrace of the 2008 decline (se below). This time, it has a better chance to break the resistance. Two scenarios are possible: 1) JM immediately starts higher at consequently tests S1 at 83,4. If this one falls, the road is open to a test of the previous high at 87,75. 2) R1 holds during Tuesday’s session (or JM starts below pivot) and the share starts a bounce down to S1. If JM closes below 82,50 on Tuesday, it is very likely that we will experience a second reversal before 82,50 can be challenged again.

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    Monday September 7, 2009

    OMXS30

    OMXS30 10 days, 15 min chart

    OMXS30 10 days, 15 min chart

    The OMXS30 closed in a strong fashion on Friday when investors, in anticipation of further gains in New York, sent the index higher during last 30 minutes of trade although US markets were in decline. OMXS30 manage to close at 891,39 above important FIB retrace resistances in the area 889-890. It fell just decimals short of reaching the previous low at 891,5. It seems likely that we will open above pivot (888) and move higher towards R1(+0,64%). If R1 doesn’t hold, the next level is in the R2 area where 902,2-904 looks like an important and strong resistance. If this resistance falls tomorrow, the road is open towards 923.

    On the downside, we note S1 at 882,5. However, without knowing the result of the trading in Asia, the most likely scenario for Monday is a trading session in the range 888-902.

    Tuesday September 1, 2009

    JM

    0831_jm_10days_15minJM fell 3,79% to 76,25 in Monday’s trading. The decline was gradual and volumes were low and without peaks. The share has now reached FIB23,6 retrace of the previous decline but still has some gap to the rising trend line (see below). Upside: The daily pivot is roughly 1% above close and represents the first resistance level. If this one is exceeded, JM will move on towards the resistance area 77,75-78. JM is likely to remain below R1 during the entire day. Downside: The first daily support level is at 75,3. I will look out for any high volume momentum in either direction in combination with the support and resistance levels. Pay special attention to Monday’s largest net seller ENS (SEB AB), who always plays a central role in high volume movements.

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    Monday August 31, 2009

    JM

    0831_jm_1year_

    JM daily three months

    JM daily three months

    JM has been on a short term falling trend ever since the report and reversal at 82,50 (see below). On a daily perspective, the share is on a steep rising treand since June 11, with a slope of 0,6 per day. It is currently trading at 76,75 and is likely to test this rising trend line for support before it can test the strong resistance at 82,50. On Friday, Sept 4, the trend line is at 73,35, (-4,5% from current price) so there is still some gap to fill on the downside.

    Scania

    Scania 15 min chart

    Scania 15 min chart

    The reversal from 95, which we depicted last Monday, has now passed the 38,2FIB level at 90,25 pivot before turning on a resistance at 88,5 (previous high) and then closing on 89,75. Upside: If passing the 90,25 pivot, Scania has to challenge a the 38,2 FIB retrace at 91 before attempting to break the strong intraday resistance at 92,3. Downside: Scania must pass intraday support at 87,8 before reaching the 61,8FIB retrace at 87,35. If that level is reached during Monday (looks difficult) or Tuesday, the next target is 83,8 within the week. The preference is still to short the stock, but we remain cautious to alter that view if 92 is reached during Monday’s trading.

    Tuesday August 25, 2009

    JM

    JM has been on a rising trend ever since it hit the low of 27,3 on Dec 1 last year. During last week and in today’s trading, prior to the Q2 report, it reached 82,5 which is the 23% FIB retrace level of the fall from 259. Se chart below.

    JM Trend lines and FIB levels

    JM Trend lines and FIB levels

    After the Q2 report, which came in a bit worse than expected, the share reversed and fell to a daily low of 77 before it closed at 78,5. My interpretation is that this is a clear sell signal; both fundamentals (report worse than expected) and technical analysis suggest that the share will fall from here.

    Medium term: At a minimum reverse, the FIB retrace 70,4 should be reached. After that new lower targets are previous highs at 61-63.
    Short term (trading Aug 25): JM is very likely to open lower than the daily pivot at 79,8. First target is S1 at 75,8, and if broken, S2 is at 73,0. Reaching S2 would mean a 7% fall, which hasn’t been unusual for JM on bad days.

    JM rising trend + FIB

    JM rising trend + FIB

    JM 15 min chart, 15 days, pivot & support for Aug 25

    JM 15 min chart, 15 days, pivot & support for Aug 25

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    Monday August 24, 2009

    Scania

    Scania tops at 95 and starts reversal. First target FIB support is 92. If broken, we can expect to hit 91 Intraday, which is also equivalent to the daily pivot.
    38,2 FIB level support at 90,25.

    Click to enlarge

    scania15min10days
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    Wednesday August 19 2009

    13:40: Currently trading at intraday 15min 38,2 FIB resistance @ 864,7, which so far has held, but may be about to break at 13:45. If broken, the OMX targets daily pivot @869,44.

    Click to enlarge:

    omx30_fib_daily19aug
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    OMXS30 5days intra chart

    OMXS30 5days intra chart

    Tuesday August 18 2009

    Click on thumbnails to enlarge.

    Fueld by falling asian markets, news about Swedbank capital raising and weak sales for H&M in July, the OMXS30 opened lower on Aug 17 and remained below pivot for the whole day.

    Sorry about the irregular TA Chart, but my broker Nordnet has some problems with data from the recent trading day. During Monday, the index retraced 100% (860) of the rally from last Wed and Thu. If looking at an upswing tomorrow, take note of FIB retrace levels 870,5 and 886,2. The daily pivot for Tuesday is at 862,72 and hence above yesterdays close. Pivot resistances are also marked in the chart.

    OMXS30 3 month daily chart with FIB retrace levels

    OMXS30 3 month daily chart with FIB retrace levels

    Turning to the 3 month daily chart for the support levels. Looking at the rally from July 10 to July 31 (Aug 12 probably somewhat higher), the important retrace supports are at 846,9 and 816,4. The latter is a very strong support level. Daily support levels for Tuesday’s trading are found at 848,7 and 839,2.

    If opening lower tomorrow, we’re likely to test the 1% lower support area at 846-849, where we find both FIB retrace levels and daily supports. Opening higher looks more challanging, not only because todays fall have made investors more cautious, but since you also have to pass the daily pivot and yesterday’s highs before attempting the 38,2 retrace level.

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    15min chart OMXS30 5 days including FIB and pivot points for Aug 17

    15min chart OMXS30 5 days including FIB and pivot points for Aug 17

    Monday August 17 2009

    Click on thumbnail to enlarge.

    Blue dashed lines are FIB levels from the rally marked with green, generated by the chart tool. I am only using the 38,2 and 61,8 levels as they are proven by experience to be most relevant. Notice how prices turned on the 38,2 retrace level and lingered there for the second time before dropping quickly down to the 61,8 retrace.

    Black line is the daily pivot, red lines are resistance levels, either FIB or from pivot calculation. Green are support levels.

    Opening scenario Mon Aug 17*: We are likely to open higher, supported by the US markets higher close. If this is the case, the OMX will have to pass the daily pivot at 880,7 to test the 38,2 retrace at 881,49. It is likely that these won’t hold and that the OMX will turn somewhere between the 61,8 retrace and R1 (890,3), which looks like a strong resistance. Turning there means that we will have to pass the pivot on the way down before having another go at 874,3.

    *At the time of writing, influence from Monday’s trading in the Asian markets is yet unknown.

    Update Aug 17, 8:47:  Major asian markets are down 3-4%, so we´re likely to open lower. First test is 874, then 867. This means that we´re likely to remain below pivot for the rest of the day.